Dairy’s ballot is red and green

Milk and cheese prices can be affected by elections regardless of political party both during and after voting day.

In case you missed it: it’s election week.  

Really, though, how could you?

Even without social media’s insidious current events crusade, you’d have to be pretty far removed from society to be oblivious to a presidential race. (I’m talking Maine hermit removed.)

What might be news is elections’ impact on dairy. Agriculture may belong to its own subset of industry standards and expectations, but it is not exempt from political influence. Election years impose unique economic fluctuations. Milk and cheese in particular may exhibit changes in the marketplace. This is due not to political candidates and their parties but rather to the tumultuous nature of election years themselves.

For instance, a study by Total Farm Marketing showed a modest increase in milk and cheese prices both during an election cycle and throughout the year following. Alternatively, some election years saw a decrease in market prices. (Outside factors of each four-year change must be taken into consideration, such as the 2008 recession.) Both pre- and postelection price changes proved to be unallied to any one political party. According to the study, “Neither Republicans nor Democrats dominate price increases versus price declines.” 

Because it’s difficult to predict when an election will negatively impact the market versus when it will boost the market, the Total Farm Marketing report noted it’s unwise to play a guessing game of where the market is going, as a producer. It is wise, however, to plan ahead for where the market might go and to prepare for market opportunities as they come.

This means “making a plan that is flexible and adjusts as the market changes,” the report said. “Build a plan that helps you protect your price in the event the market goes up — or down.” 

Given dairy’s exponential outshining of plant-based alternatives and its recent embrace of the highly marketable value-added milk, there’s nothing, shall we say, serious to fear re: dairy in an election year, even taking into account the possibility for market variabilities. 

“Without a change in demand or supply expectations, you’re unlikely to see a significant impact on price,” Total Farm Marketing noted.   

At the end of the day, the report advised, dairy farmers should take into consideration, rather than prescribe to, dispersal of data between election years, political parties, and market prices.